DART INDEX: Omicron hits, DART suffers sizeable setback

The greater transmissibility of the Omicron is underscored by the fact that a similar magnitude of increase in cases had taken nearly a month during the second wave in Apr-21. Such a pace of increase in infections could induce more stringent localised loc

Growth in India’s industrial production in Oct-21

Growth in India’s industrial production on an annualized basis came in at 3.2% in Oct-21 (QuantEco: 3.0%, Consensus: 4.0%), almost flatline compared to 3.3% in Sep-21 (revised up from 3.1%). The subdued headline growth however masked a robust sequential p

Economic report on CPI inflation in Nov-21

QuantEco expect CPI inflation to average between 5.5-6.0% in the remaining four months of FY22 compared to an average of 5.2% in the first eight month of the fiscal year. Potential inflation risks from Omicron need to be on close watch.

RBI Monetary policy normalization

Gradually improving growth momentum, emergence of upside risk to inflation, and beginning of monetary policy normalization by key central banks had prompted the RBI to start calibrating the domestic liquidity surplus. The upward movement in money market r

Economic Recovery Intact in Nov–21

Taking on board higher than market consensus GDP outcome in Q2, we are comfortable holding on to our FY22 GDP growth estimate at 10% with mild downside risks. Spill over risks from the new virus mutation i.e., spread of the Omicron (and its potential econ

Deficit in Merchandise Trade in Nov-21

India’s merchandise trade deficit touched a record high of USD 23.3 bn in Nov-21. In comparison with the previous high in Sep-21 that was driven by a relative outperformance of imports over exports, the record high print in Nov-21 was on account of a rela

INR: Dollar correlation and REER overvaluation

While most EM currencies have come under pressure from dollar strength in Nov-21, the INR has appreciated by 0.7%. INR has also gained against 38 out of 40 currencies in the REER basket in Nov-21. To get a detailed perspective and outlook, download report

QuantEco DART Index – Soars to a record high

For Q2 FY22, we are estimating GDP growth at 8.5%YoY (to be released on 30th Nov-21) on the back of a healthy sequential momentum led by waning of the COVID wave and easing of lockdown restrictions at the state level.

India: Payments and economic activity

In case of India, the payment ecosystem with proactive and innovative guidance from the RBI over the past decade has matured with many defining moments attracting international recognition.

QuantEco DART Index – Economic activity slips on holiday seasonality

The latest DART reading has been besieged by holiday-related seasonality, though working in opposing direction on the sub-indicators. In addition, the index is likely to undergo a revision on account of E-way bills data for week ending 7th Nov-21 (which i

QuantEco DART Index – Economic activity almost unchanged

QuantEco's DART index underscores economic recovery continuing into the month of Oct-21, aided by festive demand. Here in the reports includes the latest reading (as of 31st Oct-21).

QuantEco DART Index – Economic recovery consolidates

In a further corroboration of reviving economic activity, our proprietary DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index rose by 10.5%WoW in the week ending 13th Jun-21, albeit a tad softer vs. previous week’s pace of 13.1% (revised up from 12.8%)

India Apr – 21 IIP: Ace of Base

India’s industrial production began FY22 literally with a bang. Catapulted by an extraordinary base, IIP growth vaulted to a triple-digit expansion in Apr-21 of 134.4%YoY compared to an upwardly revised 24.1% in Mar-21.

India Inflation Outlook: Decoding the inflation conundrum

In our assessment, CPI inflation is likely to average close to 5.0% in FY22, not far from RBI’s recently revised estimate of 5.1%. This will definitely come as a reprieve compared to FY21 average inflation of 6.2%.

QuantEco DART Index – Easing economic pain

Our proprietary Daily Activity & Index Tracker (DART) Index for the Indian economy indicates a third consecutive weekly expansion in economic activity for the week ending 6th Jun-21, further cementing the turn around from last week.

RBI policy accommodative stance reiterated

In line with expectations, the RBI left key policy rates unchanged at its monetary policy review in Jun-21, while reiterating its accommodative stance. Growth forecast saw downgrade even as inflation estimates saw a minor upward tweak.

QuantEco DART Index – Economic activity turns a corner

Our proprietary Daily Activity & Index Tracker (DART) Index for the Indian economy estimates economic activity to have posted its first material uptick in 12 weeks for the week ending 30th May-21.

QuantEco DART Index – Economic activity flattens out

Our proprietary Daily Activity & Index Tracker (DART) Index for the Indian economy estimates economic activity to have to have flattened out in the week ending 23rd May-21. On a WoW basis, the index contracted by 0.1% i.e., the slowest pace of decline in

COVID delays and dilutes FY22 growth recovery

We revise our FY22 GDP growth estimate lower by 150 bps to 10.0% basis our assessment of the impact of the current wave of COVID infections that is yet to peak. The growth setback in Q1 FY22 will be dominated more by demand deferment as opposed to Q1 FY21

India Apr – 21 CPI: The inflation antithesis

India’s CPI inflation decelerated sharply to 4.29% YoY in Apr-21 from 5.52% in Mar-21, supported by a strong favorable statistical base. Sequentially, inflation momentum rose due to summer seasonality, elevated input costs, and some adverse, albeit minor

Economic Report on FY22 GDP growth

We recently revised our FY22 GDP growth estimate lower by 150 bps to 10.0% basis our assessment of the impact of the second wave of COVID infections. The sequential growth setback in Q1 FY22 will be dominated by demand destruction/deferment as opposed to

India Apr – 21 CPI: The inflation antithesis

We continue to expect CPI inflation to moderate towards 5.0% in FY22 from 6.2% in FY21 as expectation of normal monsoon/ bumper harvest, likelihood of downward adjustment in fuel taxes, and favorable base effect would offset the upside emanating from high

QuantEco DART Index – Economic activity records a modest dip

Our proprietary Daily Activity & Index Tracker (DART) Index for the Indian economy estimates economic activity to have dipped modestly* compared to last three weeks for the week ending 9th May-21.

Economic activity Report in May

Our proprietary Daily Activity & Index Tracker (DART) Index for the Indian economy basis high frequency indicators underscores a continued slowdown in economic activity, albeit at a slower pace for the week ending 2nd May-21. After contracting by over 10.

Vaccination rates impact on financial markets

rom FX perspective, EURINR currently displays strong sensitivity to the incremental vaccination spread between EU and India. The sensitivity in case of USDINR and GBPINR is expected to pick up in H2 2021 as the pace of domestic inoculation drive gains mom

Economic Activity Index 

Our proprietary Daily Activity & Index Tracker (DART) Index for the Indian economy basis high frequency indicators records yet another strong contraction for the week ending 25th Apr-21.

Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker Index

QuantEco Research’s DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index shows a steep setback to economic activity in the week ending 18th Apr 21. The 8.5% weekly drop reflects the imposition of lockdowns of varying degrees across the country.

Economic report on India CPI inflation in March

India’s CPI inflation accelerated to a 4-month high of 5.52% YoY in Mar-21 from 5.03% in Feb-21 led by sharp sequential jump in fuel prices. Meanwhile, sequential price pressures in case of food and core inflation were seen to be tepid.

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India Feb 21 IIP- Adds to the gloom

India RBI Policy: Bonding with accommodation

In line with consensus and QuantEco Research expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI at its first review for FY22 decided to leave all policy rates unchanged. As such, the benchmark repo rate continues to remain at 4.00%, while the effectiv

Macros Research Analyst

Our report suite scans through India’s macro data to offer quick take on high frequency changes in the economy to help you stay ahead of market forces. Examples include coverage on inflation, trade, industrial production, GDP, Balance of Payments, etc.

COVID Series - Velocity crowding out money supply

Strong countercyclical policy response from monetary and fiscal authorities successfully provided the initial backstop by averting a financial market freeze in the immediate aftermath of COVID led extreme risk aversion in India. Hence, money multiplier fo

COVID Series - Environment and economic activity

One of the unintended benefits of the lockdown manifested in the form of improvement in air pollution levels – globally, as well as in India. This prompted us to construct an Air Quality Index for India, which can be used as a short-term leading indicator

Index of Industrial Production for October - Reaffirms a gradual recovery

India’s IIP has posted two consecutive months of positive growth in FY21 so far. We outline four key trends emerging from recent data, covering global comparison, the macro-divide within IIP, items of consumer demand, along with a scanning of sectoral cap

Lockdown impact on economic activity

Even as India is seeing a considerable easing of lockdown restrictions since Sep-20, some of our key export markets have off late gone back to a somewhat tighter lockdown framework. With lockdowns having an impact on economic activity, we believe this rel

India’s industrial activity contracted in Jan-21

Accompanying details on sectoral granularity, breadth of activity, and peer comparison provide disappointment. However, we would refrain from extrapolating this into the near term, and in fact continue to remain cautiously optimistic due to supporting ma

Report on India Q2 FY21 GDP

Looking at the rear-view mirror and entirely expected, Q2 GDP data has pushed India into a technical recession. Nevertheless, there is comfort in the negative print as the headline posted a positive surprise led by expansion in Manufacturing GVA after fou

Report on CPI inflation Nov 20

CPI inflation eased in line with our expectation from a 6-year high in Oct-20 to 6.93%YoY in Nov-20, led by a softening of sequential price momentum in food along with support from a positive base.

India excise duty on fuel to cut or not to cut

The record high fuel prices are bound to generate direct inflation as also second order inflationary impact by building into cost of logistics, besides weighing on inflation expectations.

Report on India’s GDP- FY21

India’s GDP posted a mildly positive growth of 0.4%YoY in Q3 FY21 after a hiatus of 2 quarters to finally exit a technical recession. This was broadly in line with our expectations. The return to positive growth is remarkable especially since it has occur

Adieu monsoon: Implications for growth and inflation

The southwest monsoon in 2020 marked its second consecutive year of stellar performance with the Jun-Sep season clocking 9% surplus rainfall. This clearly has implications for both growth and inflation in the coming quarters.

Index of Industrial Production

India’s IIP yet again slipped into a contraction in Nov-20, owing to a combination of loss of working days in a festivity heavy month along with a negative base. In addition, withering of the initial pent up demand post lockdown along with festive seasona

India CPI Inflation - Pull, Push and the Pipe factors

India CPI Inflation climbed up to an 8-month high of 7.34%YoY in Sep-20 compared to 6.69% in Aug-20, marking the sixth consecutive month of retail inflation remaining above RBI’s upper threshold of tolerance i.e. at 6.0%.

Indian Monetary Policy

RBI Policy - Balancing continuity, accommodation and normalization

Report on India Monetary Policy Review

RBI in its Dec-20 Monetary Policy Review maintained status quo on rates and reiterated its commitment to maintain the accommodative stance into FY22, which was along expected lines. It also revised yet again its projections on growth and inflation.

Economic report on India's IIP in Dec20

After a contraction of 2.1%YoY in Nov-20 which was more a function of post festive fatigue, Dec-20 IIP posted a mild growth of 1.0% to belie our and market expectations of a contraction (Bloomberg consensus: -0.5%, QuantEco Research: -0.9%).

Economic analysis report on India’s CPI inflation in January

CPI inflation that averaged at 6.8% between Apr-Nov FY21, corrected sharply in Dec-20 (14-month low of 4.59%) and has printed yet another number below 5.0% in Jan-21. At 4.06%, while the strength of the downdraft in Jan-21 CPI inflation has caught us and

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Report on India’s CPI inflation in december 2020

India’s CPI inflation showed a marked deceleration in Dec-20 as the strong salubrious seasonality in food prices exerted itself while ongoing gradual unlock continued to help restore supply side disruptions, caused earlier from COVID related lockdown. Whi

India Core Inflation - Assessing COVID Sensitivities

Recall, amidst a sharp reduction in demand and disruptions on the supply side since the onset of the pandemic, core inflation (i.e., headline inflation excluding Food and Fuel inflation) has continued to remain elevated. We break-down core inflation into

Union Budget Preview Report for FY22

COVID has resulted in twin pressures on the government’s fiscal balance, both from cyclical and countercyclical sides, which is likely to result in FY21 fiscal deficit ratio rising to 7.5% of GDP.

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QuantEco’s articles will provide a bird’s eye view of structural changes in the economy and helps you to draw actionable inferences for businesses and financial market professionals.

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India Nov 20 CPI: Eases from peak but outlook complicated

Read our views on softening of CPI inflation in Nov-20 and our expectations for the months ahead.

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